Introducing Supply Chain Analysis to Post-Conflict Agricultural Systems: A Preliminary Framework from Lebanon

A summary of my dissertation, submitted to The University of Manchester for the degree of Master of Science in the Faculty of Humanities

 

Abstract 

War-torn regions need functioning food systems to achieve lasting peace. Without rapid restoration of agricultural supply chains, these areas face repeated cycles of hunger, economic collapse, and renewed conflict.

This article presents a preliminary framework for understanding barriers and enablers within post-conflict reconstruction of agricultural supply chains (ASCs), developed through an exploratory case study in Lebanon.

Recognizing the critical role of functional food systems in humanitarian response, my research leverages a supply chain management (SCM) lens to translate complex economic, political, and social issues into actionable insights for humanitarian actors. This methodology involved synthesizing existing SCM and agribusiness literature to construct a theoretical framework, which was then empirically grounded through semi-structured interviews with Lebanese agricultural experts, observations, and documentary analysis. The findings reveal a nuanced interplay of challenges beyond typical market forces, including pervasive governmental corruption, deep-seated social divisions, and the far-reaching impact of regional instability. The resulting empirically-derived framework offers a more detailed and structured understanding of post-conflict ASCs than previously available in academic literature, providing a foundational model intended to inform humanitarian interventions aimed at improving local food systems and fostering self-sufficiency after conflict.

 

Introduction 

Supply Chain Management (SCM) is a mature field in commercial sectors, offering tools to mitigate risks and overcome barriers in the flow of goods. While its application in humanitarian operations is growing, the academic literature applying an SCM lens to the agricultural sector in unstable post-conflict contexts remains limited. This research addresses this gap by providing a detailed descriptive framework of the post-conflict ASC.

A structural understanding of the supply chain, its actors' needs, and functional barriers is essential for effective humanitarian intervention in developing agricultural supply chains. Furthermore, rebuilding private agricultural sectors post-conflict is crucial for poverty reduction and empowering communities towards self-sufficiency.

This study's objective was to create a framework for barriers and enablers affecting a post-conflict ASC, specifically answering:

1. What post-conflict barriers impact the ASC?

2. Which enablers can allow the agricultural sector to overcome these barriers or increase functionality?

3. Where in the supply chain are these barriers and enablers relevant?

   
   

The selection of Lebanon as a case study was justified by its typical representation of a post-conflict zone requiring economic and political re-establishment, having experienced both prolonged internal conflicts and recent external hostilities.

 

Literature Review and Theoretical Framework 

The study synthesized existing Supply Chain Management literature with agribusiness supply chain mapping conventions to construct an initial theoretical framework of a developing ASC. This involved identifying key actors—Input Provider, Agricultural Producer, Processor, Retailer, Consumer—and additional entities like NGOs and Government. The literature review specifically sought out barriers and enablers influencing functionality (efficiency, flexibility, responsiveness, food quality) at each stage. It also utilized a meta-framework that links regional socio-economic conditions to agricultural redevelopment, allowing for comparisons with general agricultural development studies.

The initial theoretical framework (shown below) depicts potential barriers such as market forces, regional division, poor infrastructure, and lack of knowledge, alongside potential enablers like capital lending schemes and social cohesion programs.

 

A model of Barriers and Enablers Effecting the Lebanese Agricultural Supply Chain, Created From a Review of All Available Literature

 

Research Methodology 

This research used a single embedded case study strategy, with Lebanon's agricultural supply chain as the case and its links/actors as the units of analysis. An interpretivist philosophy guided the research, acknowledging the subjective nature of human experiences in a fragile context, while aiming for objective truths through consensus. An inductive approach was adopted to build theory from empirical evidence, minimizing preconceived biases.

Data collection utilized a blended mixed-methods approach. The primary method involved semi-structured interviews with Lebanese agricultural experts (academics, managers, farmers, government officials, NGO representatives), allowing for open-ended exploration of perceived barriers and enablers. This approach facilitated the collection of rich, unexpected explanatory data. Quality measures included conducting multiple interviews to mitigate individual biases and cross-referencing responses with secondary data. Documentary analysis (e.g., Ministry of Agriculture strategies, FAO reports) served as a complementary method for validation.

Data analysis followed Miles and Huberman's (2014) procedure: data reduction, data display, and drawing conclusions. This involved summarizing and transcribing relevant audio data, anonymizing responses, and coding the data into "Barriers" (BAR) and "Enablers" (ENA) categories, with sub-codes for positive (POS) and negative (NEG) sentiments to capture nuances of disagreement. Network diagrams were constructed as the primary display method to visualize relationships and causal links between identified concepts.

Key Findings

The empirical findings significantly refined the initial theoretical framework, adding depth and new insights gained from data collection in Lebanon. Governance issues, infrastructure, and market factors emerged as the most frequently cited challenges.

Key Finding 1: Barriers and Enablers of Input Supply

The idea that input supply can be modelled by market mechanics proved insufficient. Some additional key barriers identified were pervasive governmental corruption, leading to widespread smuggling of sub-quality inputs, and a severe lack of finances for small-scale producers. Deep-seated regional divisions and an unwillingness of actors to cooperate were also significant barriers, with NGO social cohesion programs largely failing to overcome them.

Key Finding 2: Barriers for the Agricultural Producers

Farmers face two critical barriers: poor access to market information (prices, demand) and lack of knowledge about commercial practices. The traditional "bel-amene" trust-based trading system leaves farmers unaware of their produce's actual selling price. Surprisingly, poor infrastructure—expected to be a major obstacle—has been largely addressed through reconstruction funded by foreign governments (Iran) and non-state actors (Hezbollah), compensating for national government inaction. Intermediaries play a contradictory role: they enable the supply chain by providing transport and sales services that farmers lack, but simultaneously exploit farmers' limited legal and commercial knowledge by selling low-quality or illegal inputs at inflated prices.

Key Finding 3: Barriers and Enablers of a Functional Market (Export) 

A critical and crippling barrier for Lebanon's agricultural sector is its inability to meet international quality standards. This is driven by:

• Excessive pesticide use by farmers focused on immediate yield, compounded by lack of knowledge of regulations, and complete absence of domestic regulations.

• Smuggling of cheap, sub-quality inputs into the country.

• Severe pollution (garbage crisis, contaminated water/soil) rendering land unsuitable for regulatory-compliant crops.

Additionally, the physical blockage of traditional export routes due to the Syrian conflict severely restricts access to key markets, causing price drops and a vicious cycle of farmers increasing pesticide use to compensate for falling profits. While new export partners (e.g., Russia) and air-freight routes for high-value produce offer some enablers, their effectiveness is limited by quality compliance issues and high costs. Furthermore, Lebanon's inability to exploit economies of scale due to geographically dispersed production and a profound lack of cooperation among farmers further hampers competitiveness.

Key Finding 4: Barriers for Retail

A "supermarket revolution" has occurred in Lebanon, with multinational firms and large retailers becoming prevalent. However, contrary to predictions from our literature review, this has not enabled the domestic supply chain. Instead, these modern retailers predominantly import cheaper, higher-quality produce from abroad, undermining domestic producers due to Lebanon's quality and supply instability issues. This creates a competitive disadvantage for local produce, highlighting a lack of integration between modern retail and the local agricultural supply chain.

A Framework for the Post-Conflict Agricultural Supply Chain 

The synthesis of literature and empirical findings resulted in a refined framework (shown below), presenting a comprehensive overview of barriers and enablers in the post-conflict ASC, grounded in the Lebanese case study. This framework highlights:

• Input Supply: Dominated by a lack of regulations, border control issues (smuggling), and insufficient funds for quality inputs due to farmer's short-term focus and uncooperative nature.

• Production: Affected by polluted water/soil and climate change, with organic farming and technology upgrades as potential enablers.

• Information Flow: NGO training programs can serve as an information input to improve farmers' understanding of standards and markets.

• Intermediaries: Identified as "Bar-ablers"—enabling transport and market access but also acting as barriers by exploiting farmers' lack of market visibility.

• Market/Export: Severely impacted by physical blockages from regional conflict, leading to restricted access to foreign markets. Inability to meet international quality standards (due to pesticide use, pollution, lack of regulation) and inability to achieve economies of scale are critical. New export routes and partners offer limited solutions.

• Retail: Modernization has led to reliance on imports over domestic produce due to quality and stability issues, acting as a barrier to local ASC development.

 

The Final Result of Our Research: A Preliminary Framework for Barriers and Enablers in the Post-Conflict Agricultural Supply Chain

 

Discussion of Findings and Implications for Humanitarian Logistics and Supply Chain Management 

This study makes several contributions to the existing body of literature. Firstly, the framework's potential transferability is implied by the similarity of barriers and enablers found in Lebanon to those documented in other post-conflict nations (e.g., Mozambique, Kenya). This suggests the model could be a valuable starting point for humanitarian actors assessing ASCs in a diverse range of post-conflict settings.

Secondly, the research provides new depth of understanding regarding the complexity of challenges to agricultural export competitiveness and compliance with international quality standards in post-conflict economies. Beyond simple lack of infrastructure, issues like ingrained social barriers (e.g., lack of cooperation even among family members, short-term mindsets, and regional divisions), governmental corruption, and environmental degradation (pollution) are revealed as fundamental impediments that ripple throughout the supply chain. These insights are crucial for humanitarian organizations seeking to implement sustainable development projects, as they highlight the need to address deeply rooted systemic and social issues, not just physical reconstruction.

The framework serves as a "conceptual lens" for humanitarian donors, offering an immediate and structured understanding of the multi-faceted barriers and enablers in a post-conflict ASC. By mapping these complexities onto a supply chain diagram, it provides a tool to holistically understand the needs of the entire supply chain as a necessary precursor to successful humanitarian intervention and long-term reconstruction.

 

Study Weaknesses, Limitations, and Recommendations for Future Research 

As a Master's dissertation, this study faced limitations including time constraints, which necessitated a cross-sectional approach and limited the breadth of data collection. Access to vulnerable populations like Syrian refugee farmers was challenging, potentially leading to a less representative understanding of the production side. As a research, I also navigated ethical considerations regarding political tensions and self-presentation, which may have limited the depth of certain discussions.

While some results appear transferable, the framework is preliminary and empirically grounded exclusively in Lebanon, limiting its immediate generalizability. Future research should aim to test and refine this framework in other post-conflict contexts using similar methodologies, ultimately leading to a more generalized and transferable model.

More focused research is needed on:

• The effect of modern retail on local food systems in developing countries.

• The effectiveness of social cohesion programs in fostering cooperation among agricultural actors in post-conflict settings.

• The development of rigorous, research-based recommendations for overcoming the identified systemic barriers to agricultural redevelopment in post-conflict zones.

  
  

Such future studies, building on the foundation presented in this paper, would be of immense benefit to the global humanitarian community interested in post-conflict agricultural re-establishment.

You can read the entire dissertation here: link

Thanks so much for your interest!